The Guardian · US news · Original story
Historic El Niño able to supercharge extreme weather looks increasingly likely – researchers
Models show overwhelming chance that this year’s El Niño to rank among largest going back to 1950
El Niño is strengthening and the risks of a historic event with the power to supercharge extreme weather around the world are rising, according to the latest analysis from the US National Weather Service.
Models show there is now an 81% chance that a very strong El Niño “that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950” will develop before the end of this year, forecasters said in an advisory released Thursday. There is almost near certainty – a 97% probability – that the conditions will persist through spring 2027.
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Gabrielle Canon · Thu, Jul 9, 2026, 2:06 PM
US news | The Guardian
Models show overwhelming chance that this year’s El Niño to rank among largest going back to 1950
El Niño is strengthening and the risks of a historic event with the power to supercharge extreme weather around the world are rising, according to the latest analysis from the US National Weather Service.
Models show there is now an 81% chance that a very strong El Niño “that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950” will develop before the end of this year, forecasters said in an advisory released Thursday. There is almost near certainty – a 97% probability – that the conditions will persist through spring 2027.
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